In the first half of the year, the chemical fiber industry product inventory fell to a medium low!

Data show that from January to June, China's chemical fiber production was 33.82 million tons, an increase of 3.9%, and the output growth rate changed from negative growth at the beginning of the year to a gradual upward trend. As the top priority of the chemical fiber industry, the polyester industry is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and a number of new capacity has been released. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the investment in fixed assets in the chemical fiber industry fell by 7.0% year-on-year, but from the actual new capacity point of view, the first half of the year is still a concentrated investment period. In the first half of the year, polyester production capacity was increased by about 5 million tons, of which 3.6 million tons of polyester and 1.55 million tons of non-fiber.

Since 2008, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in chemical fiber industry has changed

At the same time as the growth of production capacity, the operating rate of the polyester market this year seems to be somewhat "unexpected". China fiber network statistics show that the average on-load of the polyester melt direct spinning filament industry in January and February is near 58%, and it is basically maintained at more than 80% in March and June, and it is increased to about 90% in July.

However, the average operating rate of the spandex industry in the first half of the year fell by about 8 percentage points, the construction load in January was near 70%, remained above 80% in February to April, fell to about 75% in May to June, and picked up in July.

From the inventory point of view, the chemical fiber industry inventory is in good condition, and the inventory of chemical fiber main products has dropped to a medium low level. As of the end of July, the average inventory of polyester POY, polyester staple fiber, nylon and spandex is about 14 days, 12 days, 27 days and 39 days, respectively.

From the price point of view, compared with the previous two years, the chemical fiber market has been relatively stable this year, and price fluctuations have weakened.

On the basis of increasing production and maintaining a high operating rate, the profit of the chemical fiber industry is still under greater pressure.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June, China's chemical fiber industry achieved operating income of 502.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.09%; The total profit was 5.816 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.58% year-on-year; The profit margin of main business was 1.16%; The loss of loss-making enterprises was 8.258 billion yuan, an increase of 57.91% year-on-year; The loss of the industry was 38.27%.

So this year, the operation of the chemical fiber industry will be how?

Since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to recover, and the overall recovery has turned positive, with GDP growing by 5.5% year-on-year from January to June. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out at a meeting on July 24 that the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, the operation of some enterprises is difficult, there are many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and the external environment is complex and severe. The meeting proposed that "we should accurately and effectively implement macro-control, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and policy reserve", which will provide impetus for the recovery of internal economic momentum. In addition, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, and many institutions and economists believe that this rate hike cycle is coming to an end. Overall, macro expectations are warm, but economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and zigzag progress.

Back to the chemical fiber industry, the raw material end: in the benchmark case, international oil prices maintain the current range of fluctuations, the seasonal demand support in the third quarter is relatively strong, and the fourth quarter or slightly weaker. From the perspective of the capacity matching of the chemical fiber industry chain, the new capacity of the main raw materials of chemical fiber, such as PTA and CPL, is greater than the new capacity of fiber, so the cost of raw materials is relatively loose, which will contribute to the restoration of industry profits.

Supply side: The equipment originally planned to be put into production in 2022 was partly delayed to 2023 due to market problems, making 2023 annual production capacity centralized again, which is the largest increase in recent years. Therefore, before the effective growth of demand, industry enterprises should focus on controlling new production capacity, strengthen industry self-discipline, and avoid further escalation of the contradiction between supply and demand in order to maintain the sustainable and stable development of the chemical fiber industry.

Demand side: The domestic market has a stable recovery basis, the policy to boost consumer confidence, can focus on home textile consumption. In terms of export sales, the export market of textile and apparel is under great pressure, but the export of chemical fiber products is still expected to grow steadily.

Looking forward to the whole year, the operation of the chemical fiber industry is expected to improve, but whether the supply and demand relationship of the industry can effectively improve has become the key to whether the operation of the industry can stabilize and rebound, and it is expected that it may experience a long period of repair cycle. Only from the point of view of data indicators, due to the low base in the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate of various indicators in the second half of this year is expected to be better repaired.

Published │ China Textile Association

Editor │ China Textile Association Hao Hao

Source │ Network

Operating organization | Hangzhou China Textile Association Information Technology Co., LTD

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2023-08-31 14:21

China Textile Association | Textile information | In the first half of the year, the chemical fiber industry product inventory fell to a medium low!

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